SUMMARY OF RADIO INTERVIEW WITH GEORGE JARKESY – 9/27/12 at 5:50pm
- George and Tim discussed alternative asset classes – including the new music royalties trust being created and offered by Goldman Sachs.
- They then discussed the upcoming election, the rumored requests by our administration to European leaders to hold back on releasing any bad economic / financial system news until after the U.S. election in November. George then asked Tim to discuss how best to go about reading the tea leaves and positioning one’s portfolio leading into the end of the year.
- Tim discussed some rather bearish tells (for risk assets) coming from the fixed income and currency arenas – including action in the bond markets, the euro currency and the Aussie Dollar currency.
- Finally, George asked Tim for a specific idea that could benefit the listening audience. Tim gave Cirrus Logic (CRUS) – a play on the “pin action” from Apple, Inc. See the details of Tim’s feelings on both AAPL and CRUS below:
THE APPLE TRADE
Apple, Inc. AAPL NASDAQ $665.18 as of Wednesday’s close
Fwd. P/E: 12.475 PEG: 0.62
Trend-setting company Amazing cash flow Ultra-clean balance sheet Cheap
Shares of AAPL have come down from $705.07 last Friday intraday to $661.20 at the intraday low yesterday. So, AAPL had been a cross to bear for the NASDAQ composite for this week instead of being the massive tailwind for the market. That changed in Thursday’s trading, but nothing changed technically – see below.
Pattern development: I can see where there could be a head and shoulders top formation developing for AAPL – IF we get an end of the month rally in AAPL up to a max of $682.48. Should that come to
fruition, AAPL’s price could move all the way down to somewhere in the $570 – $618 range with $617 – $618 being the likely target based on a common H&S measuring technique.
Nearest support: Neckline of H&S at $656 (0.90% from Thursday morning’s prices); those entering there must use a close below $655 as a stop loss trigger.
Next support: Uptrend line which corresponds with the April highs at the $635 – $637 range. (3.6% from Thursday morning’s prices); those entering there must use a close below $634 as a stop loss trigger.
Third support: Upper edge of the H&S target range at $617. (6.65% from Thursday morning’s prices – which corresponds pretty closely with my call on the NASDAQ Composite to correct by 6.8% to around 2,887 from 3101 this morning). Those entering at this level should use any close below $616 as a stop loss trigger. There are lower possible entry points, but this one should theoretically be “it”.
APPLE PIN-ACTION: CIRRUS LOGIC
Cirrus Logic CRUS NASDAQ $37.79 early Thursday trading
Fwd. P/E: 12.03 PEG: 0.79
Great revenue growth this year moderating to good revenue growth next year Relatively cheap (EV < Mkt Cap & PEG ratio point to this)
CRUS is one of the key chip suppliers in the AAPL biosphere. Shares rallied from $12.54 on 8/8/11 to $45.49 earlier this month – all on the pin-action from AAPL’s unbelievable growth.
Pattern development: There have been a series of three upside gaps in CRUS during the course of this year. The most recent gap appears to be a breakaway gap in the middle of a move rather than an exhaustion gap at the end of a move. The reason is that CRUS has traded above the upper edge of the gap for over 20 sessions – which typically does not happen in the cases of exhaustion gaps. The other tell in terms of whether this is a breakaway gap with more upside to come is whether the gap gets filled or not. Breakaway gaps typically don’t get filled on the first major retracement / test of support.
Strategy: So, we’ll be using the upper edge of the gap at $35.50 (using round numbers) as support for the stock. That is just under 6% lower from Thursday morning’s prices. This roughly falls in line with the expected market correction. The upside target for traders will be $40.50. Investors may want to hold on as long as the bullish macro trend in AAPL holds up. Use any close below $34.50 as a stop loss trigger for the trade.
These are trading ideas only and are for informational purposes only. They are not offers to buy or solicitations to sell any security. Investing in the financial markets involves risk of loss. Do not invest any money in any financial product or security without understanding the costs and risks associated with the investment. Information provided is the author’s opinion only and does not constitute any guarantee of performance or future direction of any security or market. The information provided is believed to be accurate, but the markets are fluid and the data and trade ideas / recommendations are subject to change at any point. Please consult with your own financial advisor prior to executing any trades based on this or any information provided on this website. T2 Technalytics, Inc., Timothy A. Thielen, George Jarkesy and/or the George Jarkesy Show shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred by anyone investing or trading off of this report.